"Doug communicated in straightforward language the extraordinary challenges that lie ahead." ABTA
ABTA
BIOGRAPHY
Douglas is CEO of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, and one of Europe's foremost forecasters of UK and international economies. Apart from his technical skills, he is widely respected for his understanding of the implications of economic trends for business decisions.
Some of Doug's insights have been highly influential. He was amongst the first to draw attention to the importance of the rising economies in East Asia. More recent work looks at the impact on the international economy of developments in China.
At a domestic level, Douglas is the acknowledged expert on the economy of London and the prospects for the City. He has advised numerous organisations, including Siemens, Vodafone, Oracle, Transport for London, Canary Wharf Group, and The Crown Estate. He has also given formal evidence to Select Committees of both Houses of Parliament, and advises senior politicians on both front benches.
Douglas served as IBM UK Chief Economist before being appointed Chief Economic Adviser to the CBI. At the same time he was Chairman of the Economics Forecasting Group of UNICE, the European federation of employer organisations.
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TOPICS
Economic Overview, Business Strategy, Emerging Markets (BRIC+)
SPEECH TITLES
Reading the economic indicators
Business intelligence - seeing through the mass of data
FEE BANDS
CONFERENCE SPEAKERS
£2.5K TO £5K
AFTER DINNER SPEAKERS
Q&A
JLA: What troubles are looming for the Eurozone?
DM: There will be a crisis when Spain and Italy have to refinance €400bn of bonds. If the Euro doesn't break up, it could weaken substantially towards dollar parity. We give it only a one in five chance of surviving in its present form for ten years.
JLA: What about Germany?
DM: German performance will continue to be stunning, subsidised by the euro which has the same effect as the cheap renminbi has for the Chinese. One element of their success has been the role of immigrants (primarily Turks) who seem to be boosting the economy just as ours has been for the past 20 years.
JLA: And Japan?
DM: I see a serious economic crisis in Japan, where debt is now 200% of GDP. If it grows they'll need foreign financing - which may be difficult - and they'll have to embark on fiscal retrenchment. Meanwhile, the aging population means the retirement age will rise again, to 75!
JLA: Closer to home, are the banks returning to 'business as usual'
DM: UK banks have restored their capital bases, and I expect them to lend more competitively - either because they can afford to or because the government gets fed up with their monopolistic attitudes and adopts more aggressive policies.
January 2011