"Roger was very well received, highly knowledgeable and his presentation excellent. He gave the audience exactly what they needed."
Norwich Union
Norwich Union
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BIOGRAPHY
Roger Bootle is Managing Director of Capital Economics and one of the most respected voices on the current turmoil. He is one of The City's best-known and most widely-read economists.
After lecturing at Oxford, Roger became one of the few of his profession to get experience as a dealer, at Citibank. He then switched to the role of Group Chief Economist at HSBC and Lloyds Merchant Bank, and served as advisor to the House of Commons Treasury Committee.
Under the previous Conservative administration Roger was appointed to the Chancellor's Panel of independent economic forecasters, famously known as 'The Seven Wise Men.' He is a regular columnist and author of a number of books on monetary economics including Theory of Money, Index-Linked Gilts and The Death of Inflation, the latter of these becoming a best-seller and noted for its foresight. He also predicted the 2008 banking crisis in his book Money For Nothing, and later studied the causes, effects and future threats of the crisis in The Trouble with Markets.
Noted for delivering often uncomfortable truths, Roger has an impressive record of forecasting major market, economic and monetary events including the real estate bubble, the impact of the credit crunch, the collapse of the 'dotcom' boom, the UK's removal from the ERM, and the period of sustained low inflation in Europe and the US. Roger and his Capital Economics team won the Wolfson Economics prize for the best plan for dealing with member states leaving the eurozone.
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Q & A WITH JLA
LA: How closely is UK recovery linked to our European neighbours?
RB: The EU accounts for about half of the UK's exports, which in turn accounts for about 30% of GDP - so the influence is enormous. It is going to be very difficult for the UK economy to recover fully without a decent recovery in the Eurozone.
JLA: Do you see circumstances in which Euro membership might change?
RB: It's now more likely than not that over the next five years at least one member will leave the Eurozone. Greece is the most likely candidate. But the country who's departure would be most beneficial for Europe and the world is Germany.
JLA: How great a problem might inflation become in 2011?
RB: Inflation will be the most talked about problem in 2011, but it will be more apparent than real. It is set to plunge in 2012.
JLA: What shocks might still be lurking on the horizon?
RB: Protectionism, Euro break-up, sharp falls in house prices, further bank failures.
January 2011