Motivational Speakers | After Dinner Speakers | Keynote Speakers | JLA Speaker Bureau - JLA

From a US perspective, what are the big questions in 2013?

Will the President figure out how to keep growth going? Will China's tensions between Japan and Vietnam spark a dangerous trade war, which spins into a real war?

What should we expect from Obama?

He will push forward on ‘Obamacare’ and jack up taxes for wealthier Americans. If dividend and capital gains taxes rise sharply for investors, the stock market could take a startling hit.

What clouds do you see on the world horizon?

The world has grown more dangerous: Iran and North Korea look increasingly aggressive and desperate. Meanwhile Germans still have to decide how deep into their pockets they will reach to bail out Greece and Portugal.

And what causes for hope?

The development of new technologies in natural gas offer a revolution in energy - that might bring about much cheaper prices and lessen the sway of OPEC. Meanwhile, medical scientists are racing to uncover DNA secrets that will extend life. Remember, just 100 years ago life expectancy was about 50.

What's your favourite fact that you use in presentations?

Demographics matter. Japan sells more adult diapers than baby diapers!

January 2013

Is UK Plc in decent shape, or is productivity a real concern?

We’re in better shape than most other European countries; there have been signs of growth in the past year (although GDP figures don’t prove it). Our main problem is not low productivity, but the continuing rise in public debt. The government has barely begun to tackle the problem.

Is much progress being made in rebalancing?

The private sector has done much better at reducing debt than the public.

Ahead lie two other big issues of balance: what industries will make up for the reduced role that financial services will play – and how do we improve the balance between the north and south of the country?

What clouds do you see on the horizon?

With Western countries almost all needing to reduce debt, growth will be slow for at least a decade. Beyond that, there remains the growing global impact of an ageing population, which will be the key economic force of the first half of this century. Against that background, wealthy countries need to recalibrate the welfare state. That will be especially jarring for Europe, where half a century of public assumptions will have to alter.

What's your favourite figure that you use in presentations?

Even with moderate growth, the number of dollar millionaires worldwide could reach 46m by 2017, more than the entire population of Spain.

January 2013

How do you see the world economy in 2013?

It will become more fragmented, with different economic situations playing out across the world. We’ll see recession and overheating, inflation and deflation, austerity and re-launching. For multi-nationals this means the global ‘one size fits all’ strategy will need fine-tuning. Parallel business models will be needed to adapt to very different local circumstances.

How do you expect major companies to fare?

Companies will continue to perform much better than governments and some financial institutions, accumulating impressive quantities of cash - partly due to lack of appealing investments. The emphasis will be on re-industrialisation and ‘re-shoring.’ Bringing manufacturing home will apply pressure on salaries and mean more sophisticated technologies in factories, but it will create jobs.

What about the banks?

Banks will struggle with over-regulation. The Basel III agreement is 616 pages long. The US Dodd Frank Act has 848 pages. In addition, the tier one capital requirements force them to be borrowers on the market rather than lenders to the economy.

What’s the picture for emerging nations?

With the slow down in demand from advanced economies, they will put more emphasis on domestic consumption. Their middle class will be complemented as an engine of growth by a new class: the ‘less poor’ earning $2 - $10 a day. They are no longer in absolute poverty but not yet middle class. They will need a new business model of their own, along the lines of mobile money and Tata’s $2,500 car.

January 2013

How does UK economic performance compare with our peers?

Over the last 30 years the UK has performed better than any other G7 country in GDP growth per head. This is still true, even after the recession.

How do you see the prospects for 2013?

For those in work, real incomes are where they were in 2005 (the highest they had ever been). We’re bumping along the top, not the bottom. Employment is holding up well - that’s why it doesn't feel as bad as the 80s or 90s recession. Stagnation might be economically bearable (just as it was in Germany for 10 years and Japan for 20), although it is politically toxic.

Should we expect inflation to return?

With all the main central banks in the West concentrating on restoring growth and employment, they are ready to tolerate inflation - which is what we’ll get if the emerging world continues to catch up.

What will 2013 bring for Europe?

Banking union and the ECB should be enough to save Spain and Italy, and therefore the Euro. But the drama has changed the dynamic in the heart of Europe - Germany, Holland and France. No one would vote now for such a wide monetary union or a passport-free zone covering Romania and Bulgaria. Support for federalism is waning: we have reached the high watermark of the European Project.

What about Greece?

The ECB has stopped markets forcing a resolution by denying funding, but a political decision to expel or to leave is still open. That seems likely for Greece, where the will to deliver the required cuts will be impossible to sustain.

January 2013 

What can Government do to stimulate recovery?

We have been in much worse difficulty in previous recessions and gone on to prosper. There’s no reason to think we’ll not survive this one. The problem is that those who need money can’t get it, because of the banking crisis, and those who have it (large companies and many individuals) are not spending it because they are fearful. Our problem is confidence; even those doing well worry about the future. So one thing that Government could and should do is sound much more positive - and stop banging on about austerity and cuts.

Is much real progress being made in rebalancing the economy?

The UK economy will never rebalance from finance to manufacturing because the latter makes up only 10% of GDP, with less than half of that internationally competitive and equipped to export. However we are beginning to rebalance by putting more support behind other things we’re good at - like health, higher education, creative arts, consultancy and professional services. They are all big earners of foreign currency.

How will the Euro fare in 2013?

The Euro will survive as long as Germany wants it to survive. The longer it keeps the show going the less painful will be the disintegration, if it comes. 2013 will be less prone to crises, but longer term the member countries are too different to be yoked together. However, take comfort from the fact that 70 currency unions have dissolved since 1945, so it should be manageable. The Greek balance sheet is only one sixth the size of Lehman – it’s like Scotland, only with better weather.

What of the bigger, global challenge?

The challenge for the West is the power shift to Asia. The terms of trade have moved against us, commodity prices are likely to be higher and more volatile, inequality is back and will lead to regular outbreaks of social unrest. The world is going to be like it was between 1870 and 1913, with low growth and no one political power able and willing to provide leadership. On the positive side the UK is one of the world’s most creative economies, and the Internet means it has never been easier to form a business. I foresee a million new companies between now and 2020, ushering in a new age of dynamism.

January 2013

What more can Government do to stimulate recovery?

Government must create ‘innovation ecosystems’ and re-cast the basis of fiscal, monetary and financial policy. If both the state and banking system deleverage simultaneously, the calamity will continue.

Is the Eurozone likely to stabilise in 2013?

The crisis will be resolved one way or another in 2013 - with further progress towards banking union, use of the European Stability Mechanism and Facility and more symmetric adjustment. But I worry that Germany is not taking its responsibilities sufficiently seriously.

What clouds do you see on the horizon - and what causes for hope?  

There will be inflation later in the decade, and that together with a new wave of transformative innovation will trigger recovery - driven by ‘good’ capitalism. However, the danger is that none of this will take place because governments are too wedded to austerity. The situation is profoundly dangerous.

January 2013

What do you see determining the pace of UK recovery?

Even without the Eurozone difficulties, it will take the UK private sector quite a time to pay down debt, restore household balance sheets and for confidence to return. A fall in inflation in the early part of the year, if it happens, would be a big boost to consumers.

What else gives cause for optimism?

In the US it looks as though recovery is taking hold. In the UK the main cause for hope, beyond falling inflation, is the remarkable growth of employment. No other country in the G7 other than Canada has such a strong participation rate – employed people and those looking for work. It suggests our GDP figures may be overstating the depth of the recession. Another positive development is the amount of manufacturing returning both to the UK and US. This seems to be a phenomenon affecting several countries, not just a one-off.

Is the Eurozone is more or less likely to stabilise in 2013?

The crisis is likely to continue, with successive doses of anaesthetic being applied - always buying time but never providing a fundamental solution. The Euro might just muddle through, but I don’t believe it will ever function well as a currency area.

What’s your favourite quotation to use in presentations?

It comes from the Spanish economist, Pedro Schwartz: “The Euro exists because the French are afraid of the Germans, the Germans are afraid of the Germans, the Italians don’t trust themselves, the Greeks want to be able to face up to the Turks, the Irish want to be rid of the British, the Spanish and the Portuguese want to be French and the Belgians, Luxembourgers and Dutch all want a seat at the top table.”

January 2013

What gives you cause for concern - and hope - in 2013?

We could face more Eurozone chaos around the time of the German election, a spike in inflation, conflict with Iran, and political paralysis in Westminster as Cameron loses support. On the other hand there should be progress on major infrastructure projects, and the private sector should continue to create new jobs as fast, or faster than the public sector has to cut them.

What more should Government do to stimulate recovery?

We need tax and business-rate breaks, reforms of employment law, making unused government and local government buildings available, and so on. And if Vince Cable is really going to start a ‘business bank’ he needs to get it up and running quickly, and let it run on a properly commercial basis.

How would you 'clean up' the banking sector?

More detailed micro-regulation is not the answer. Much more important is to encourage the emergence of a new generation of management who genuinely wish to inculcate a new culture, and to encourage and even celebrate models of good banking where they occur. Believe it or not, there are some.

January 2013