Q&A

JLA: How long do you see this recession lasting?
JB: As the UK is top-heavy in banking and financial services, we're in for a slow recovery. The small manufacturing sector means that any benefits from falls in sterling will be limited. I see recession lasting into 2010, with recovery in the housing market delayed until 2011 or later.

JLA: Do you accept the idea of a new capitalism'?

JB: I accept that the economic system that drove the long boom from the 70s to 2007 has unravelled. From here on we are entering a new age of moderation and acceptance of government involvement. Perhaps it will be called the age of the New Puritans.


JLA: Will lack of credit severely impact on entrepreneurial activity?
JB: Marginal business ideas will find it very difficult to attract financial support; 'future-proof' ideas will find it easier. Credit will be much more cautious - but it's worth noting that Hewlett and Packard (founding fathers of Silicon Valley) launched their business in the depressed 1930s.

JLA: How can you stay ahead of the competition in a serious downturn?
JB: Focus on the things that matter - simplicity, customer-centric strategies and consumer-relevant products and services. Use online technology to help assess what people want, and remember that the wisdom of crowds will dictate the next big ideas.

JLA: Will recession dramatically change medium and long-term trends?
JB: If medium term means 5-7 years, there will be significant shifts in behaviour and expectations, towards more limited horizons. Over a 15-20 year period the long term trends should reassert themselves.