CONFERENCE SPEAKERS
£2.5K TO £5K
"On the '1 to 5' score card for speaker quality, one delegate gave him 6."
Prudential
YOUR FEEDBACK
"Anthony generated a lively debate. We can think of no aspect that needed improving."
IBM
EXTERNAL LINKS
JLA is not responsible for the content of external websites.
TOPICS
Economic Overview
SPEECH TITLES
The economic, financial and business scene
The challenges for business
BIOGRAPHY
Anthony Hilton is Financial Editor of the Evening Standard and a Wincott Financial Journalist of the Year. An author, broadcaster and lecturer, he has also served as a non-executive Director of insurance and publishing companies.
Joining Fleet Street as a trainee on the Guardian, Anthony served in New York as Business Correspondent for the London Sunday Times and City Editor of The Times before joining the Standard.
Anthony makes regular television and radio appearances, commenting on the international money markets and the state of the economy. He also assesses the outlook for investments, the pensions crisis and corporate governance.
© Copyright JLA: All Rights Reserved
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC
by Anthony Hilton
Norman Lamont's political career was effectively over when as Chancellor he claimed to see the green shoots of recovery - only to be met with derision. History is now repeating itself. The default mode for economic and financial pundits is unalloyed gloom. Anyone who suggests things are not so bad is treated with disdain. But the economy will be better in the next year.
Of course there are things that could go wrong - with the impact of government cuts, the need to fund the national debt, the squeeze on incomes caused by tax rises, inflation and personal indebtedness, and problems in the Eurozone. But most of these are manageable.
We have managed much larger national debts without difficulty in our past, the squeeze on incomes is offset by rock bottom interest rates and stability in the housing market. Germany has the resources to support the Euro and the weaker peripheral nations. She also has a strong reason to do so: the cheap currency makes German exports much more competitive.
British companies have come through this recession far better and faster than earlier ones. Exporters are benefitting from a 25% devaluation of sterling. Even modest inflation is a good thing: a price rise of 4%pa halves the real value of the nation's debts in nine years. Meanwhile unemployment is lower than predicted (perhaps because the immigrant workforce has taken some of the strain), and house prices have fallen far less than people expected - underpinning personal spending and financial security.
History is on our side. Both the 80s and 90s recessions were followed by six years of growth at 3.5%, significantly above the long-term trend. The policies put in place by Ken Clarke in 93 were almost identical to those of today: devaluation, a public sector squeeze and a VAT increase - endowing Tony Blair's incoming government with sound public finances and buoyant revenues.
If the recovery continues as I think, add in the regeneration and sale of the banks and a positive boost from the Olympics, and as the next election approaches the Coalition could be popular to an extent most people cannot currently imagine.
February 2011